Economy & business

I bonds bought from November 1, 2026, through April 30, 2027, earn 5.51 percent for their first six months, the Treasury says. That combines a fixed rate of 1.40 percent, which stays with the bond for its whole life, and an inflation rate of 2.04 percent for six months, based on the rise in consumer prices from March to September. The fixed rate is the highest since November 2006 and up from 0.90 percent for bonds bought in the past year, according to TreasuryDirect's rate history.

Bonds you already own keep their own fixed rate and also pick up the new inflation rate at their next six-month reset: one with a 0 percent fixed rate earns 4.08 percent, and one bought from November 2025 through October 2026, with a 0.90 percent fixed rate, earns about 5 percent.

What to know before buying: you can buy up to $10,000 a year per person electronically at TreasuryDirect.gov. I bonds can't be cashed for the first 12 months, and if you cash them before five years you give up the last three months of interest. Interest is exempt from state and local income tax and federal tax can be deferred until you cash in. With a 1.40 percent fixed rate, a bond bought now will beat inflation by that much for as long as you hold it, up to 30 years, which is why the fixed rate matters more than the headline number for long-term savers.

The U.S. economy grew at a 3.4 percent annual rate in the third quarter, up from 2.2 percent in the spring, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said October 29 in its first estimate. Investment, consumer spending and government spending all rose, partly offset by lower exports.

The same day, the bureau said its personal consumption expenditures price index, the inflation measure the Federal Reserve targets, was 3.6 percent higher in September than a year earlier, and 3.1 percent excluding food and energy, after rising 0.5 percent in the month alone. Personal income rose 0.2 percent in September, but disposable income adjusted for inflation fell 0.3 percent, and the saving rate was 3.8 percent.

What it means for you: strong growth with inflation running well above the Fed's 2 percent goal is the backdrop for this week's Fed decision, where two officials wanted to raise rates. It makes near-term rate cuts unlikely, which keeps card and loan rates high, while savers can still find yields well above zero. If your raise this year was smaller than about 3.5 percent, your pay has likely lost ground to prices. These are first estimates and will be revised.

The Federal Reserve left its benchmark rate unchanged on Wednesday, keeping the federal funds target range at 3.75 to 4 percent, where it has been since a quarter-point increase on September 16. The vote was 10 to 2. Fed governor Lisa D. Cook and Cleveland Fed president Beth M. Hammack dissented because they wanted to raise the range another quarter point.

In its statement, the committee said the economy is expanding at a strong pace, with resilient consumer spending, strong productivity and robust business investment, while job gains have kept up with the workforce and unemployment has changed little. It said inflation remains elevated and that more information will help it decide how to get inflation back to its 2 percent goal on time.

What it means for you: with no change, the prime rate stays at 7 percent, so credit card and home equity line rates, which are tied to prime, should hold steady. Savings and CD yields usually follow the Fed's range and are unlikely to move much right away. Mortgage rates follow the 10-year Treasury yield rather than the Fed; Freddie Mac's 30-year average was 7.32 percent last week, and the next weekly reading is due Thursday. Two votes for a hike suggest some officials see more risk of inflation than of a slowdown, which can keep longer-term rates from falling much. The Fed's last decision of the year is December 9.

The Federal Trade Commission and 20 states have sued Dollar General, alleging that for years the chain routinely charged customers more at the register than the prices on its shelves, price tags and ads, costing shoppers millions of dollars, the FTC said October 26. The states are Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Connecticut, Florida, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Nebraska, New Jersey, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah and Wisconsin.

According to the complaint, filed in federal court in Tennessee, Dollar General received tens of thousands of complaints that it did not honor advertised prices but failed to fix the problem. The company, which runs more than 21,000 stores, has not had its day in court; these are the government's allegations, not findings.

Wherever you shop, a few habits catch overcharges: watch the screen as items are scanned, keep the receipt, and compare it before leaving. Snap a photo of a shelf tag if the price matters. If you are charged more than the posted price, ask for the difference at the register or customer service; some states require stores to honor the lower price or pay a set amount. You can report overcharges to your state attorney general or weights-and-measures office, and to the FTC at ReportFraud.ftc.gov.

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.32 percent in Freddie Mac's weekly survey released October 22, down from 7.40 percent the week before. The 15-year fixed averaged 6.68 percent.

Rates could ease further. Mortgage rates track the 10-year Treasury yield, and that yield fell sharply on Thursday as investors moved into government bonds during a stock market sell-off led by technology shares, after a report that the U.S. and Israel might resume strikes on Iran pushed oil higher. Treasury's own daily figures put the 10-year at 4.96 percent on October 22, down 0.17 point in a day, its first close below 5 percent in about a month. The 2-year fell to 4.65 percent and the 30-year to 5.29 percent.

The Federal Reserve announces its next rate decision Wednesday, October 28; markets broadly expect it to hold its target range at 3.75 to 4 percent. Freddie Mac's survey reflects rates for borrowers with strong credit and a 20 percent down payment, so quotes vary. If you are shopping, compare the annual percentage rate and fees on the Loan Estimate each lender must give you within three business days of applying.

Consumer prices rose 0.6 percent in September, seasonally adjusted, after a 0.4 percent rise in August, and were 3.7 percent higher than a year earlier, up from 3.4 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Wednesday, October 14. Economists polled by Reuters had expected 3.6 percent.

'The index for gasoline rose 9.1 percent in September, accounting for over half of the monthly all items increase,' the bureau said; gasoline was 34.2 percent more expensive than a year earlier, and the overall energy index rose 5.2 percent in the month. Excluding food and energy, prices rose 0.3 percent in the month and 2.6 percent over the year, up from 2.4 percent.

It was the last inflation report before the Federal Reserve's October 27-28 meeting. The next report, for October, is due November 10.

Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 29,000 in September and the unemployment rate edged up to 4.2 percent, both little changed, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Friday, October 2. Employment in all major industries changed little over the month. August's job gain was revised down to 133,000 from the 162,000 first reported.

Average hourly earnings were about 3.0 percent higher than a year earlier, the slowest pace since 2021, while consumer prices were rising faster. The report came after the Federal Reserve raised rates in September and before its October 27-28 meeting.

The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point on Wednesday, September 16, to a target range of 3.75 to 4 percent, its first increase since July 2023, the Fed's statement said. The vote was 12 to 0. 'Inflation remains elevated,' the Federal Open Market Committee said, adding that the move would support a timelier return to its 2 percent goal.

The Fed's new projections showed most officials expect one more quarter-point increase this year, with the median forecast putting the rate at 4.1 percent at year-end, no change in 2027 and cuts in 2028 and 2029, according to J.P. Morgan Asset Management's summary. Chairman Kevin Warsh said at his news conference that policymakers had an 'attitude of optimism' about the economy but were concerned about inflation, which has been pushed up this year by oil prices.

What it means: the prime rate, which most credit cards and home equity lines follow, rises by the same amount, to 7 percent. Savings yields tend to rise too. Mortgage rates follow longer-term Treasury yields and do not move one-for-one with the Fed.

Consumer prices were 3.4 percent higher in August than a year earlier, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday, September 11, the same annual rate as in July. Excluding food and energy, prices rose 0.3 percent in the month and 2.4 percent over the year. Forecasters had expected the annual rate to ease to about 3.3 percent, according to FactSet.

The report came five days before the Federal Reserve's September 15-16 meeting, where policymakers were weighing whether energy-driven inflation required higher rates.

The European Central Bank raised all three of its key interest rates by a quarter percentage point on Thursday, September 10, lifting its deposit rate to 2.50 percent and its main refinancing rate to 2.65 percent, according to the bank's announced rates as compiled by market data services. It was the ECB's second increase of 2026; in June it raised rates for the first time since September 2023, as the energy shock from the war in the Middle East pushed up prices across the euro area.

The bank had held rates in July, when President Christine Lagarde said policymakers had considered a hike but agreed unanimously to wait. Higher rates in Europe can strengthen the euro against the dollar, which affects the cost of European goods and travel for Americans.

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 162,000 in August and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Friday, September 4. Forecasters had expected far fewer, with a median estimate of 65,000 compiled by FactSet and about 53,000 in a Dow Jones survey.

The report followed a weak July, when the bureau first estimated a loss of 23,000 jobs. Annual wage growth slowed to about 3.1 percent. The report came 12 days before the Federal Reserve's September 15-16 meeting.

Japan's Finance Ministry said it spent a record ¥15.4 trillion, about $96 billion, buying yen in the currency markets between July 30 and August 26, the largest monthly intervention on record, according to the ministry's figures reported at the end of August. Governments intervene this way, selling foreign currency reserves to buy their own currency, to slow a sharp fall in its value, which raises the cost of imports such as fuel and food.

For Americans, a weak yen makes travel to Japan and Japanese goods cheaper, while a sudden reversal can ripple through global markets.

The national average price of a gallon of gasoline reached $4.06, a record for mid-August, as talks with Iran stalled and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remained disrupted, Democracy Now reported on August 18. Gasoline prices were up about 25 percent from a year earlier in July, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Consumer prices were 3.4 percent higher in July than a year earlier, after a 3.5 percent rise in the year to June, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Energy prices were up 14.7 percent over the year, led by gasoline at 24.6 percent, while food prices rose 3.0 percent. Excluding food and energy, prices rose 2.5 percent.

Fresh vegetable prices were up 6.3 percent over the year, and apparel 3.9 percent, while used cars and trucks were 1.9 percent cheaper and medical care commodities 2.7 percent cheaper than a year earlier. With wages up 3.2 percent over the year in July, according to the jobs report, average pay was still trailing overall price growth.

Total nonfarm payroll employment fell by 23,000 in July and the unemployment rate was 4.1 percent, both little changed, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Friday, August 7. Forecasters had expected a gain of roughly 80,000. About 6.9 million people were unemployed.

The report also revised earlier months: May's job gain was lowered by 66,000, to 63,000. Average hourly earnings rose 0.1 percent in July and 3.2 percent from a year earlier, slower than the 3.5 percent rise in consumer prices over the year to June. Manufacturing added about 30,000 jobs and health care continued modest gains. The Federal Reserve's next rate decision is September 16.

New U.S. tariffs of 10 percent to 12.5 percent on imports from 59 countries and the European Union took effect at 12:01 a.m. Eastern on Friday, July 24, the moment a temporary 10 percent global tariff expired, NBC News and NPR report. The trading partners covered account for about 99 percent of U.S. imports, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative said.

The administration issued the tariffs under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, citing what it says is inadequate enforcement of bans on goods made with forced labor. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said the action would begin to correct a human rights abuse and a distortive trade practice. Some trade experts questioned that rationale; Caroline Freund of the University of California, San Diego, told the BBC the move was about finding a lasting legal basis for tariffs aimed at the trade deficit. The Supreme Court ruled in February that many earlier tariffs imposed under emergency powers were illegal.

The new duties come on top of existing tariffs on goods such as steel, aluminum and lumber and on some individual countries. The president also signed proclamations this week imposing 50 percent tariffs on some Canadian goods starting in about a month, NPR reports, and the trade representative is investigating 16 countries over manufacturing overcapacity, which could lead to more tariffs.

Consumer prices were 3.5 percent higher in June than a year earlier, down from 4.2 percent in May, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said July 14. Excluding food and energy, prices rose 2.6 percent over the year, down from 2.9 percent.

Energy remained the biggest driver: the energy index was up 15.7 percent from a year earlier, as the war in the Middle East kept fuel prices elevated. Food at home rose 2.7 percent over the year, with fruits and vegetables up 5.3 percent, and restaurant meals rose 3.4 percent. Rent and owners' equivalent rent each rose modestly in the month.

The International Monetary Fund lowered its forecast for global economic growth this year to 3.0 percent from 3.1 percent in its July 8 World Economic Outlook update, citing the war in the Middle East, higher energy prices and geopolitical uncertainty, Reuters reports. It raised its 2027 forecast to 3.4 percent from 3.2 percent and its 2026 global inflation forecast to 4.7 percent.

The IMF said the world economy had so far weathered the shock from the war better than feared, but its forecast assumes the Strait of Hormuz begins reopening in mid-July; the update was prepared before the renewed U.S.-Iran fighting. It cut its forecast for the Middle East and Central Asia to 0.7 percent growth this year, and for the euro area to 0.9 percent.